The Dow is trading at the top of its range and appears to be poised for new highs, again. Just the SPY - the bears can't keep the Dow bulls down and each and every selling moment over the last 5 years has turned out to be a buying opportunity.
The general market has resumed the upward march, with the S&P 500 setting a new closing high yesterday. The bulls sounded defeated the bears this week, as shown on the chart below. Can anything stop this bull market? Will the action on Wall Street ever match the fundamentals of Main Street people or are we in an ere where the stock market has become divorced from the masses everyday life? I think stocks will continue to move higher and those towards the bottom of the earnings spectrum to continue to struggle. Buy accordingly.
For the first time this year - MCD is at, near, or above the 200 DMA. Can the stock finish above this line on a Friday? That would be the first bullish sign I've seen on this equity in a long time. However, there are hours to go in this trading session - watch that red line.
Oil has risen from recent lows and so has Conoco Phillips. The stock is safely above the 50 DMA and seems to be going higher. However, as the price of oil is in flux - expect volatility if you own this stock. Don't get flustered if oil prices and hence COP drop once again.
The broader markets are having more success than Bank of America and this under performance is being put to the test now - the stock closing just below the 50 DMA. Is the rebound in the stock from the big post earnings drop for real or not? Watch the 50 DMA. The last three months have essentially been a tie between bulls/bears. If BAC can't get above 17 - watch to see if 16 holds.
I think BAC is a buy at current levels. For a long or intermediate term investment. The 50 DMA has held for several sessions and now the stock looks primed to make a run at the thin red line - the 200 DMA. Yes, Google looks like it put in a bottom and is poised to break out. Can the stock get above 560? If it can - new highs are a possibility. However, watch for the classic first time rejection at moving average after long decline.
The insane run continues - a fourth day of a run that has taken the stock from 118 to 126. The stock will make a new range now, having broken the old range yesterday. I think 120 will be the new base very likely, but we'll get a better idea after the first pull back of this recent run. One thing for sure - having 178 BILLION, yes, with a B - gives you a safety with this investment. Apple isn't going anywhere.
Oil has been sounded rejected at the 50 DMA and needs to get above that blue line and right quick or the price of oil will fall below recent lows. The 30's will happen for oil if the blue line isn't fought back. That's the technical picture. And the scary part, it matches the fundamental picture.
The fundamental picture is America produces more oil by the month and cut backs to production won't come in time to prevent a large pool of excess crude from collapsing prices. I never thought that the 40's would hold. Unless a miracle occurs and producers begin to cut *current* production, not slowly the amount of production in the future, oil will go lower. The 105/6 to 120 range has been broken by topped earnings expectations. Where does Apple goes from here? The cheeky answer is higher.
|